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Whether We Choose To Realize It Or Not, We Live In An Increasingly Fragile World

(The investment opinions expressed in this article are my own. Please do your own due diligence before investing.)

I’ve become extremely fascinated by the idea of economic fragility. That as countries borrow increasingly more (both public and private sector), it makes them increasingly economically fragile.

Make no mistake public and private debt are closely related. The first point to understand is that debt and spending are two sides of the same coin. People, companies, and governments borrow in order to consume or invest. So one person’s debt often becomes another’s income.

When the productivity of the economy is not enough…


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And What I’m Doing In My Portfolio

(Not intended to be investment advice)

What a week. The ebullient markets of just a week or two ago now seem like a distant memory. The stock market is volatile and scary again and everything seems to be going down.

But it’s also important to keep things in perspective — despite all the turbulence, markets are just a bit off their all-time highs.


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How the Algorithm Works and Why it Is So Effective

A big part of machine learning is classification — we want to know what class (a.k.a. group) an observation belongs to. The ability to precisely classify observations is extremely valuable for various business applications like predicting whether a particular user will buy a product or forecasting whether a given loan will default or not.

Data science provides a plethora of classification algorithms such as logistic regression, support vector machine, naive Bayes classifier, and decision trees. …


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A Few Things To Keep In Mind Before You Freak Out

(Not intended to be investment advice. Opinions are my own.)

Yesterday, the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) data came out. CPI refers to the price level of a basket of goods and services that is used to measure cost of living. I’ve written about it in the past:

The Fed typically tries to keep CPI around 2% give or take a few bps. So yesterday’s 4.2% print was shocking. …


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But It’s Not The Fund Manager’s Fault When They Do

(Not intended to be investment advice. No position in any of the ARK funds.)

There’s been a decent amount of Cathie Wood bashing of late. She and her ARK ETFs (Ms. Wood managers several technology and innovation focused ETFs) were darlings on the way up, especially last year when the tech rally went parabolic. But as of late, the enthusiasm for tech stocks have dampened and the haters have come out of hiding — including the following take from the WSJ:

“So many investors piled in relatively recently, though, that her actual wealth-creation record is unimpressive. Analysts at Bespoke Investment…


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The Fed Risks Losing Control

(Not intended to be investment advice. Opinions are my own.)

First, I’d like to say I am embarrassed that my fellow Alpha Beta Blog editor, Kareem Kudus, finished reading The Deficit Myth before I did. I’ve been pretty scatterbrained in terms of reading lately jumping from book to book (lately I’ve also been reading Will and Ariel Durant’s The Lessons of History as well as Ray Dalio’s writings on LinkedIn).

Whether you are fan of MMT or not, I do think it’s critical to understand its intricacies as MMT-like thinking will become a bigger and bigger part of monetary and…


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Does An Asset Have To Produce Cashflows To Have Value?

(Not intended to be investment advice. Opinions are my own. Full disclosure — I am long gold.)

I was reading Holger Grueneberg’s article (link below) about crypto and it made me ponder the question:

Does An Asset Have To Produce Cashflows To Have Value?

Productive Assets

Productive assets have cashflows attached to them and include stocks, real estate, and bonds. When you invest in productive assets, you are making various bets about the future paths of these cashflows:

  • Stocks: you are betting that the company will grow its sales and earnings over time making each share of the business worth more. In…


A Step In The Right Direction

Medium gave out an extra $500 bonus on top of its usual payments this past month. It was definitely a nice surprise and the first time I’ve gotten something like this from them.

When I first started writing on the platform (back during the days when we were paid according to claps as opposed to read time), I read about other writers getting one-off bonuses for “writing with a differentiated voice”. My guess at the time was that that was Medium’s way of encouraging promising new writers to keep at it (while their views and earnings were still low).

This…


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A Few Article Recommendations From Yours Truly

(Not intended to be investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making an investment decisions.)

This week I’m excited to welcome James Chang to Alpha Beta Blog. Please check out his first article with us in the recommendations to follow.

A Quick Update On Markets (Not Investment Advice)

A slightly more volatile week to stock markets so far this week. Despite strong tech earnings from the mega-caps (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) last week, there’s been some selling this week, which has caused tech to lag the broader market. …

Tony Yiu

Data Science @Solovis, Doing my Best to Explain Data Science and Finance in Plain English. Follow my publication at: https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog

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